Agency problems in structured finance – a case study of European CLOs

This paper is a case study that focuses on possible incentive problems in the management of Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs). CLOs are the most important type of special purpose vehicles in the leveraged loan market, and their managers appear to have a considerable impact on performance. Specifically, this article identifies the potential incentive, or agency, problems facing CLO managers, and the mechanisms that have been put in place to mitigate these problems. These mechanisms, including structural provisions, financial incentives and reputational concerns, should work fairly effectively. However, the analysis reveals some gaps which may allow managers to engage in certain adverse strategies. Specifically, the article raises concerns about the reliability of constraints on overall portfolio risk, the so-called portfolio tests, and about the effectiveness of reputation as a disciplining device. Both concerns are related to the benign market conditions until the summer of 2007 which – at least until now – prevented, any “stress-testing” of CLOs and differentiation between managers. This paper analyzes also evidence on CLO transactions in which managers buy/hold a portion of the equity tranche. Although retention of the equity tranche is only one of several incentive aligning mechanisms and not a general requirement, the analysis reveals that factors related to the agency problems can explain why in certain cases managers buy/hold a portion of the equity tranche. Specifically, first time managers and managers of a risky transaction buy/hold more frequently a portion of the equity tranche. Furthermore, buy/hold patterns change over time, which suggest that competitive effects and market trends play a role in the question whether to retain a portion of the equity tranchecredit risk transfer, moral hazard, asset securitisation, CLO's

The forecast ability of risk-neutral densities of foreign exchange

We estimate the process underlying the pricing of American options by using higher-order lattices combined with a multigrid method. This paper also tests whether the risk-neutral densities given from American options provide a good forecasting tool. We use a nonparametric test of the densities that is based on the inverse probability functions and is modified to account for correlation across time between our random variables, which are uniform under the null hypothesis. We find that the densities based on the American option markets for foreign exchange do quite well for the forecasting period over which the options are thickly traded. Further, simple models that fit the densities do about as well as more sophisticated models.Foreign exchange futures ; Options (Finance) ; Economic forecasting

Consumption, Wealth and Business Cycles in Germany

This paper studies the long-run relationship between consumption, asset wealth and income in Germany, based on data from 1980 to 2003. While earlier studies — mostly for the Anglo-Saxon economies — have generally documented that departures of these three variables from their common trend signal changes in asset prices, we find that for Germany they predict changes in income. Asset price changes are found to have virtually no effect on consumption — both in the short as well as in the long-run. We offer an explanation of this finding that emphasizes differences between the bank-based German financial system and the rather market-based Anglo-American system: stock ownership by private households is much less widespread in Germany than in the Anglo-Saxon economies and the share of publicly traded equity in household wealth is much smaller in Germany than in the U.S., the UK or Australia.wealth effect on consumption, business cycles, monetary policy transmission, financial systems, asset price predictability, permanent income hypothesis

The forecasting performance of German stock option densities

In this paper the authors estimate risk-neutral densities (RND) for the largest euro-area stock market (the index of which is the German DAX), reporting their statistical properties, and evaluating their forecasting performance. The authors have applied an innovative test procedure to a new, rich, and accurate data set. They have two main results. First, They have recorded strong negative skewness in the densities. Second, they find evidence for a significant difference between the actual density and the risk-neutral density, leading to the conclusion that market participants were surprised by the extent of both the rise and the fall of the DAX.Stock market - Germany ; Stock options

Constraint Quantization of Slave-Particle Theories

We start from the Barnes-Coleman slave-particle description, where the Hubbard operators $X$ are decomposed into a product of fermionic ($f_{\alpha}$) and bosonic ($b$) operators. The quantum mechanical constraint $b^{\dagger} b + \sum_{\alpha} f_{\alpha}^{\dagger} f_{\alpha} = 1$ is treated within the framework of Dirac's method for the quantization of classical constrained systems. This leads to modified algebraic properties of the fundamental operators: $b b^{\dagger} b = b$, $f_{\alpha} f_{\beta}^{\dagger} f_{\gamma} = \delta_{\alpha \beta} f_{\gamma}$ and $f_{\alpha} b^{\dagger}= 0$. Thereby the algebra of the $X$-operators is preserved exactly on the operator level. Matrix representations of the above algebra are constructed and a resolvent-like perturbation theory for the single-impurity Anderson model is developed.Comment: LATEX, 5 page

The Forecasting Performance of German Stock Option Densities

In this paper we will be estimating risk-neutral densities (RND) for the largest euro area stock market (the index of which is the German DAX), reporting their statistical properties, and evaluating their forecasting performance. We have applied an innovative test procedure to a new, rich, and accurate data set. We have two main results. First, we have recorded strong negative skewness in the densities. Second, we find evidence for significant differences between the actual density and the risk-neutral density, leading to the conclusion that market participants were surprised by the extent of both the rise and the fall of the DAX. -- In dieser Arbeit werden "risikoneutrale" Dichtefunktionen über künftige DAXIndexstände aus täglich beobachteten Preisen europäischer Kauf- und Verkaufsoptionen mit verschiedenen Restlaufzeiten abgeleitet. Das hierbei verwendete Berechnungsverfahren beruht auf der Mischung von zwei Log-Normalverteilung, bei dem fünf Parameter (der Mischungsparameter, zwei Mittelwerte und zwei Standardabweichungen) so bestimmt werden, dass der quadratische Abstand zwischen beobachteten und impliziten Optionspreisen minimal ist. Die Preisnotierungen für die Derivative werden der Eurex entnommen und der Untersuchungszeitraum erstreckt sich von Dezember 1995 bis Mai 2002, also sowohl über die Boom- als auch über die Niedergangsphase des DAX. Die Vorhersagehorizonte der Dichten sind auf Grund der Datenlage auf sechs bis acht Wochen begrenzt. Die Vorhersagegüte dieser Dichten wird über verschiedene neuartige statistische Evaluierungsverfahren abgeschätzt. Im Ergebnis stellt sich folgendes heraus: Erstens: Die Dichten weisen im Durchschnitt eine negative Schiefe (negatives drittes Moment) auf, so dass das linke Ende der Dichte "dicker" ist als das rechte und die Marktteilnehmer somit einen bestimmten prozentualen Kursverlust als wahrscheinlicher einschätzten als einen Kursgewinn. Zweitens: Die Evaluierungstests für die Dichten machen deutlich, dass die tatsächlichen Dichten im Mittel deutlich von den risikoneutralen Dichten abweichen. Dabei kann ausgeschlossen werden, dass es sich lediglich um einen "Mittelwert"fehler handelt. Vielmehr scheinen die Markteilnehmer sowohl in der Aufschwung- als auch in der Abschwungphase von den Kursbewegungen des DAX überrascht worden zu.option prices,risk-neutral density,density evaluation,overlapping data

Ausmaß und Ursachen von Niedriglöhnen im ostdeutschen Dienstleistungsgewerbe

In recent years, employment has grown noticeably in Germany. Although this is good news, some people criticize that many jobs are low-paid, i.e. the wage is less than two thirds of the medium wage. An eye-catching example is the service sector in Eastern Germany. However, a systematic analysis of this sector in Eastern Germany is missing until now. The article closes this gap in the literature. Concerning the whole service sector in Eastern Germany, about 25 percent of the employees get a low (gross) wage. This is not much more than the average of all sectors. However, in some branches of the service sector, much more employees get low wages. More than 40% of the employees of retail trade, restaurant business and services near to companies (“unternehmensnahe Dienstleistungen”) are paid low. The probability to get a low wage is significantly higher for women and the so-called minijobbers. Since the tax system adjusts differences, all calculations were also done for net wages. On the one hand, the part of low-paid workers decreases for all branches and all subpopulations. On the other hand, the probability to get a low wage does not differ anymore between minijobbers and full-time employees. Thus, the tax system does not only reduce low-paid employment, it also changes its structure.

Consumption, wealth and business cycles in Germany

This paper studies the long-run relationship between consumption, asset wealth and income - the consumption-wealth ratio - based on German data from 1980 to 2003. We find that departures from this long-run relationship mainly predict adjustments in income. The German consumption-wealth ratio also contains considerable forecasting power for a range of business cycle indicators, including the unemployment rate. This finding is in contrast to earlier studies for some of the Anglo-Saxon economies that have shown that the consumption-wealth ratio reverts to its long-run mean mainly through subsequent adjustments in asset prices. While the German consumption wealth ratio contains little information about future changes in German asset prices, we report that the U.S. consumption-wealth ratio has considerable forecasting power for the German stock market. One explanation of these findings is that in Germany - due to structural differences in the financial and pension systems - the share of publicly traded equity in aggregate household wealth is much smaller than in the Anglo-Saxon countries. We discuss the implications of our results for the measurement of a potential wealth effect on consumption